# Budget Overrun 2026: Megaprojects Bust 98% of the Time > PMI says 43% of projects exceed budget. For construction megaprojects it is 98% (McKinsey). Infrastructure 9 in 10, IT 69%. Free EVM calculator, no signup ## Pages - [Home](https://budgetoverrun.com): PMI says 43% of projects exceed budget. For construction megaprojects it is 98% (McKinsey). Infrastructure 9 in 10, IT 69%. Free EVM... - [The \"53,000 Tech Projects, 63%\" Statistic: Is It Real? (Source Trace)](https://budgetoverrun.com/53000-tech-projects-statistic): The viral claim that a study of 53,000 tech projects found 63% have hidden costs, complexity, or quality issues has no traceable... - [About BudgetOverrun.com: Independent Project Overrun Reference](https://budgetoverrun.com/about): Who builds BudgetOverrun.com, why it exists, editorial principles, what is in scope, and the corrections process. Independent project budget overrun reference, no... - [Aerospace Project Budget Overruns: NASA, ESA & Launch Vehicle Data](https://budgetoverrun.com/aerospace-projects): JWST went from 500M to 10bn USD. SLS, Artemis, Mars Sample Return, Europa Clipper cost growth from NASA OIG and GAO reports.... - [Agile vs Waterfall Success Rate: 39% vs 11% (Standish CHAOS 2015)](https://budgetoverrun.com/agile-vs-waterfall-success-rate): The Standish CHAOS Report 2015 measured agile against waterfall across 10,000+ projects: 39% of agile projects succeeded versus 11% of waterfall, and... - [EVM Calculator: CPI, EAC, VAC & TCPI Free Online Tool 2026](https://budgetoverrun.com/calculator): Free EVM calculator: CPI, SPI, EAC (3 methods), VAC, TCPI. Construction, IT and government presets. Formula reference and worked examples, no signup - [Berlin Brandenburg Airport (BER): 9 Years Late, EUR 7B Over Budget](https://budgetoverrun.com/case-studies/berlin-brandenburg-airport): BER airport opened 2020 instead of 2011, costing EUR 7.3B instead of EUR 2B. Causes, fire-protection scandal, and Bundesrechnungshof source data - [Big Dig Boston: 2.8B USD to 14.8B Final Cost (+429%)](https://budgetoverrun.com/case-studies/big-dig-boston): The Central Artery/Tunnel Project went from 2.8B USD (1985) to 14.8B (2007) and saddled Massachusetts with 24bn including interest. Federal Highway and... - [California High-Speed Rail: 33B to 231B Cost Growth Case Study](https://budgetoverrun.com/case-studies/california-high-speed-rail): CA HSR was sold to voters in 2008 at 33bn USD. The Draft 2026 Business Plan puts the original design at 231.3bn... - [Channel Tunnel: 80% Over Budget and the Iron Law's Best Example](https://budgetoverrun.com/case-studies/channel-tunnel): The Channel Tunnel cost £9.5bn against a 1985 estimate of £4.8bn (80% over in real terms), opened a year late, and carried... - [Crossrail (Elizabeth Line): 4 Years Late, 4B GBP Over Budget](https://budgetoverrun.com/case-studies/crossrail): Crossrail opened in May 2022, 3.5 years late. Final cost 18.8bn GBP vs 14.8bn budget. NAO 2019 and 2022 reports on what... - [HS2 Cost Overrun: £37.5bn Full Network to £102.7bn for London-Birmingham](https://budgetoverrun.com/case-studies/hs2): HS2 was estimated at £37.5bn (2009 prices) for the full network. After Phase 2 to Manchester and Leeds was cancelled, the London-Birmingham... - [Sentinel ICBM Cost Overrun: $77.7B to $141B, +81% (Nunn-McCurdy)](https://budgetoverrun.com/case-studies/sentinel-icbm): The LGM-35A Sentinel ICBM's program cost rose from $77.7B to about $141B, an 81% per-unit growth that triggered a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach... - [Sydney Opera House: 7M to 102M AUD, the 1,357% Overrun](https://budgetoverrun.com/case-studies/sydney-opera-house): Sydney Opera House (1957 winning entry: AUD 7M, 1973 completion: AUD 102M). 14x over budget and 10 years late. Hall's Great Planning... - [7 Causes of Budget Overruns: Scope Creep, Estimates & More](https://budgetoverrun.com/causes): 7 root causes of budget overruns: scope creep (52% of projects, PMI), inaccurate estimates, optimism bias, political pressure, vendor risk. Academic plus... - [Cone of Uncertainty: Boehm's Original Curve and How to Narrow It](https://budgetoverrun.com/cone-of-uncertainty): Early project estimates are 4x out at concept and shrink to 1.25x at detailed design. Boehm's Cone of Uncertainty original 1981 data,... - [Construction Budget Overruns: 9-in-10 Rate, 28% Over (2026)](https://budgetoverrun.com/construction): 9 in 10 infrastructure projects overrun by 28% on average (Flyvbjerg 2002). Phase risk, contract types, supply-chain data, prevention strategies for managers - [Contingency Budget Calculator: Type-A vs Type-B Project Buffers](https://budgetoverrun.com/contingency-budget-calculator): How much contingency should a project carry? AACE 40R-08 categories, percent ranges by project type, worked sizing example for type-A vs type-B... - [Boehm's Cost-of-Change Curve: Does a Bug Really Cost 100x More Late?](https://budgetoverrun.com/cost-of-change-curve): The cost to fix a defect rises the later it is caught. Boehm & Basili (2001) put it near 100x after delivery,... - [Cost Overrun Formula: How to Calculate Budget Overrun (%)](https://budgetoverrun.com/cost-overrun-formula): The cost overrun formula in plain terms: Overrun % = (Actual Cost - Budgeted Cost) / Budgeted Cost x 100. Worked dollar... - [Defense Project Budget Overruns: GAO 2025 Acquisitions Data](https://budgetoverrun.com/defense-projects): GAO assesses 106 major US weapon programmes investing nearly $2.4 trillion. In 2025, combined cost estimates rose $49.3bn in a single year.... - [Earned Value Management Guide: CPI, SPI, EAC Formulas 2026](https://budgetoverrun.com/earned-value-management): Complete EVM guide: CPI, SPI, EAC (3 methods), VAC, TCPI formulas with worked examples. Limitations explained. Free calculator and PMP-aligned reference notation - [Energy Project Budget Overruns: Nuclear, Oil & Gas, Renewables](https://budgetoverrun.com/energy-projects): Nuclear plants average 117% overrun (Sovacool 2014). Oil and gas 34% (Flyvbjerg). Solar and wind under 15%. Per-source data and the Hinkley,... - [Estimate at Completion Calculator (EAC): All 4 PMBOK Methods](https://budgetoverrun.com/estimate-at-completion-calculator): Free EAC calculator. Enter BAC, EV, AC and PV to get all four PMBOK Estimate at Completion forecasts side by side: BAC/CPI,... - [12 Famous Budget Overruns: Sydney, James Webb, Big Dig (2026)](https://budgetoverrun.com/famous-examples): 12 historic budget overruns ranked: Sydney Opera House (+1,357%), James Webb Telescope (+1,900%), Big Dig (+429%), HS2, Berlin Airport. Verified case studies - [Government Budget Overruns: HS2, Crossrail, US Federal (2026)](https://budgetoverrun.com/government-projects): Half of public-sector IT projects overrun; overruns run ~3x private-sector peers (McKinsey). HS2, Crossrail, Universal Credit case studies and what better procurement... - [Healthcare IT Project Overruns: EHR Rollouts and NPfIT Lessons](https://budgetoverrun.com/healthcare-it-projects): EHR implementations routinely overrun. NHS NPfIT cost 10bn pounds. Cerner-VA EHR went from 16bn to 50bn. KLAS data on go-live overruns and... - [Infrastructure Megaproject Overruns: Rail, Road, Bridge, Tunnel Data](https://budgetoverrun.com/infrastructure-megaprojects): Rail averages 39% over budget, bridges 34%, roads 24% (Flyvbjerg). Per-mode data, the optimism-bias driver, and the worst examples by category - [Cost Overrun Insurance: Builder's Risk, Surety Bonds 2026](https://budgetoverrun.com/insurance): Cost overrun insurance options: builder's risk, professional indemnity, surety bonds. What each policy actually covers (and the gaps) when projects exceed budget - [The Iron Law of Megaprojects: Over Budget, Over Time, Over and Over Again](https://budgetoverrun.com/iron-law-of-megaprojects): Bent Flyvbjerg's Iron Law of Megaprojects explained: over budget, over time, over and over again. Nine out of ten megaprojects overrun. Definition,... - [IT Project Budget Overruns: 45% Over Budget, 69% Fall Short (2026)](https://budgetoverrun.com/it-projects): Large IT projects run 45% over budget. 69% are challenged or fail (Standish CHAOS 2020). McKinsey data, agile-vs-waterfall budget impact, and why... - [Who Pays for Budget Overruns? Contract Law Explained (2026)](https://budgetoverrun.com/legal-consequences): Who pays when a project overruns: contract types (lump-sum, cost-plus, GMP), variation claims, dispute resolution, contractor insolvency. General info, not legal advice - [Methodology: How BudgetOverrun.com Sources Overrun Statistics](https://budgetoverrun.com/methodology): Publisher sources, calculation framework, EVM formula stack, reference class forecasting, monthly refresh cadence, scope boundaries, and the corrections process for BudgetOverrun.com - [Monte Carlo Simulation for Project Cost Risk: Worked Example](https://budgetoverrun.com/monte-carlo-simulation): Monte Carlo cost-risk simulation samples thousands of project futures from input distributions to produce P50, P80, P95 budgets. AACE method with worked... - [Movie Budget Overruns: Hollywood Production Cost Overrun Cases](https://budgetoverrun.com/movie-budget-overruns): Cleopatra, Heaven's Gate, Waterworld, The Lone Ranger and Mortal Engines. The famous Hollywood production overruns, original vs final budgets, with trade-press sources - [Olympic Games Budget Overruns: Every Games Since 1960 Over Budget](https://budgetoverrun.com/olympics-budget-overruns): Every Olympic Games since 1960 has run over budget. Mean cost overrun across all Games is 172%. Tokyo 2020, Rio 2016, Sochi... - [Planning Fallacy: Why Projects Run Over, and the Fix (Kahneman & Tversky)](https://budgetoverrun.com/planning-fallacy): The planning fallacy is the tendency to underestimate a project's time, cost, and risk. Kahneman & Tversky coined it in 1979; Buehler's... - [Prevent Budget Overruns 2026: 12 Strategies (RCF, EVM, CCO)](https://budgetoverrun.com/prevention): 12 strategies to prevent budget overruns: reference class forecasting, EVM monitoring, change control, contingency sizing. Evidence-based, no vendor sales pitch - [How to Deal With a Project Cost Overrun: 7-Step Recovery Plan](https://budgetoverrun.com/recovering-from-cost-overruns): Your project is already over budget. A 7-step recovery playbook: measure the overrun with EVM, forecast the final cost (EAC), calculate the... - [Reference Class Forecasting Calculator: The Flyvbjerg Method](https://budgetoverrun.com/reference-class-forecasting): Free reference class forecasting (RCF) calculator. Apply HM Treasury Green Book optimism-bias uplifts to your estimate by project type. The Flyvbjerg method,... - [Budget Overrun Statistics 2026: 43%, 28%, 69%, 98% by Sector](https://budgetoverrun.com/statistics): Cited 2026 budget-overrun statistics by industry: 43% of projects over budget (PMI), 9 in 10 infrastructure (Flyvbjerg), 69% IT (Standish), 98% megaprojects.... - [Project Budget Overrun Studies: The Source Data, Compared](https://budgetoverrun.com/studies): The nine most-cited studies on project cost overruns, with their headline numbers and primary citations: Standish CHAOS (69%), McKinsey-Oxford (45%), Flyvbjerg's 16,000-project... - [Standish CHAOS Report by Year: Every Edition 1994 to 2020](https://budgetoverrun.com/studies/chaos-report-by-year): The CHAOS Report editions from the original 1994 study (16% successful, 53% challenged, 31% cancelled, read from the primary report) to CHAOS 2020 Beyond Infinity (31%). Success rate by year, the 2015 Modern Resolution definition change, and why there is no 2026 report. - [Flyvbjerg & Budzier 2011: 27% Average IT Overrun, 1-in-6 Black Swans](https://budgetoverrun.com/studies/flyvbjerg-budzier-it-black-swans): The Flyvbjerg & Budzier study of 1,471 IT projects (Harvard Business Review, 2011): 27% average cost overrun, but one in six is... - [Flyvbjerg Project Database: Only 0.5% of Projects Deliver in Full](https://budgetoverrun.com/studies/flyvbjerg-megaproject-database): Bent Flyvbjerg's Oxford project database covers 16,000+ projects. 47.9% on budget, 8.5% on budget and time, 0.5% deliver promised benefits too. Methodology... - [Flyvbjerg 2002 Study: 258 Transport Projects, 9 in 10 Over Budget](https://budgetoverrun.com/studies/flyvbjerg-underestimating-costs): Flyvbjerg, Holm & Buhl (2002) 'Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?': 258 projects, 20 nations, 1927-1998. Rail +44.7%, fixed... - [GAO Weapon Systems Annual Assessment 2025 (GAO-25-107569): Cost Growth Data](https://budgetoverrun.com/studies/gao-weapon-systems-assessment): GAO-25-107569, the 2025 Weapon Systems Annual Assessment: 106 major US weapon programmes, ~$2.4 trillion planned. Combined cost estimates for 30 continuing MDAPs... - [GAO Weapon Systems Annual Assessment 2026 (GAO-26-108457): Cost and Schedule Data](https://budgetoverrun.com/studies/gao-weapon-systems-assessment-2026): GAO-26-108457, the 2026 Weapon Systems Annual Assessment: 104 major US weapon programmes, over $2.4 trillion planned. Average time to initial capability now... - [McKinsey IT Projects Study: 45% Over Budget, 56% Less Value](https://budgetoverrun.com/studies/mckinsey-large-it-projects): Direct source page for the McKinsey-Oxford study of 5,400 IT projects. 45% over budget, 7% late, 56% less value than predicted. Full... - [NASA Requirements vs Overrun Curve: 5-10% vs 20% Cost Effect](https://budgetoverrun.com/studies/nasa-requirements-overrun-curve): NASA studies show projects spending 5-10% of effort on requirements run ~50% over budget; projects spending 20% run only ~10% over. Source... - [PMI Pulse of the Profession: Source for 43% Over Budget Stat](https://budgetoverrun.com/studies/pmi-pulse-of-the-profession): The PMI Pulse of the Profession is the source for the often-cited 43% of projects over budget figure. Methodology, sample, and the... - [Standish CHAOS Report: 69% IT Project Failure Rate Explained](https://budgetoverrun.com/studies/standish-chaos-report): The Standish CHAOS Report tracks IT project success since 1994. CHAOS 2020: 31% successful, 50% challenged, 19% failed. Success by project size... - [Free Budget Tracker Templates 2026: EVM, Change Order, CCO](https://budgetoverrun.com/templates): Free copy-paste templates: project budget tracker, EVM status report, change order log, contingency calculator, post-project review. No signup, no software required - [PERT Calculator: Three-Point Estimation Formula & Worked Example](https://budgetoverrun.com/three-point-estimation): Free PERT calculator. Enter optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic values to get the expected estimate E = (O + 4M + P)... --- *Generated 2026-08-26 from Budget Overrun 2026: Megaprojects Bust 98% of the Time site source.*